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  November 2008

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The people of Pakistan voted for a democratic government in order to find a solution to their problem. It now appears that the new democratic government does not have the ability to solve the complex financial and economic problems of the country. The law and order situation in the country is at all time low and suicide bombings have become a common phenomenon.

The currency is shedding value against dollar with each passing day. At the time of writing this post the dollar was being traded in the open market at Rs.81 against a dollar. This is despite the steps taken by the central bank to regulate the price of dollar in the country. More than six months have passed and we have not yet seen any serious and sincere effort to find a solution to the economic woes of the country. The foreign exchange reserves have depleted to an extent where they are not even sufficient for one month’s import bill.

There are rumors in the country that some banks may collapse. This has created an air of extreme uncertainty in the country and people are reluctant to keep their money in banks. It is said that one foreign bank that has investment of from a large middle east group has collapsed and the news will be made public in a few days. If this rumor is true this will have devastating effect on the banking system in the country as people will resort to large scale withdrawals.

We are not seeing any change in the economic policies of the government. The lame duck prime minister is the new Shoukat Aziz in Pakistan. In fact he is worse that Shoukat Aziz. Shoukat Aziz had at least complete control on the economic policies of the country. Gillani does not seem to have any authority at all. He is the new “yes man” in Islamabad.

So the big question is if any thing has changed at all in Islamabad?

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Lt General Nadeem Taj has been replaced with Lt General Ahmed Shuja Pash as Director General Inter Services Intelligence. This is a significant move. Lt General Nadeem Taj has been made a corps commander. Some other changes have also been made and the newly promoted lieutenant generals have been given key positions.

Lt General Nadeem Taj was considered a close confidant of General Pervez Mushrraf. Lt General Shuja Pasha has been Director General Military Operation. It is a key position in the army but his appointment has DG ISI will certainly make him very important.

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Islamabad has been rocked a large bomb explosion. The explosion has occurred in Marriot Hotel Islamabad. It is said that two trucks laden with explosives were used to carry out the attack. The area near the hotel is in pitch darkness and the buildig as I see on television is in flames. The explosion has caused severe damage to the hotel building.

It is feared that a large number of people are trapped in the hotel building. A large number of people have been injured. Large number of casualties are feared.

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The twelve year son of Dr Aafia Siddiqui has returned to Pakistan. Dr Aafia was accused of maintaining close links with Al Qaeda elements. She was abducted from Karachi with her three children 2003 and her whereabouts were not known since then. The US authorities disclosed her presence only after international press reported about a mysterious woman prisoner at Bagram airbase a few months back.

The custody of the boy has been handed over to her aunt Dr Fauzia who lives in Islamabad. The whereabouts of the remaining two children of Dr Aafia are still not known. Even if Dr Aafia has anything to do with Al Qaeda, what was the fault of her minor children?

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The judges of the superior judiciary in the country who have been saying that they will fight to the end for constitution, principle and justice are lining up to save their jobs. Eight judges of the Sindh High Court and four judges of the Peshawar High Court have taken fresh oath against their earlier stand. According to news reports some judges of the Peshawar High Court, including its Chief Justice have also agreed to take new oath.

The role of the judiciary in Pakistan has never been exemplary. They have always acted to protect their petty interests and sided with the powerful establishment. The fresh oath by the judges has implicitly accepted the as legitimate the action taken by President Pervez Musharraf on 3rd November 2007. If the action of the president was illegal there would have been no need for a fresh oath and a simple executive order would have been enough.

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The senior most journalist of the country Ardeshir Cowasjee in his column has written that issuing of National Reconciliation Ordinance is the greatest sin of President Musharraf and veteran leader Mumtaz Ali Bhutto have said almost the same thing.

President Musharraf should say sorry to the nation and withdraw this ordinance, sooner the better. This will flatten many balloons.

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Is the Pakistan Army going to ask Pervez Musharraf to resign? According to a report which is published in the Telegraph the Pakistan Army is going to ask Pervez Musharraf to resign within a week. The newspaper has quoted an undisclosed former military aid of the president according to whom the army leadership does not want the president to face the humiliation of impeachment.

The source says that the army is neutral but is expecting the president to resign. It will influence the president’s safe passage as the senior leadership of the army would not want him to be punished It further says that the ruling coalition decided to impeach the president because he had started to plot against the government with the help of intelligence agencies.

I think that there is not much substance in this report. Zardari wants to become the president and Nawaz wants to settle personal score. There is no other reason for bringing the impeachment motion against the president. I would also say it here that the day Zardari becomes the president of the country, it will be the unfortunate day in the history of Pakistan

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According to a CNN report the United States fears that the move to impeach President Musharraf may harm the war on terror in which Pakistan plays a pivotal role. The CNN report contradicts the statement issued by the spokesman of the Statement Department according to which the impeachment would not affect the war on terror.

The CNN has said quoting senior State Department officials that the internal turmoil which has resulted from the impeachment move will harm the efforts to defeat militants hiding in the tribal areas of Pakistan.

The signals which we are getting from Washington regarding the impeachment move are conflicting. I believe that United States would not stand behind its most important ally in the war on terror. This is not a new thing with the United States. They always leave their friends high and dry, when they have served their purpose.

This is a fact that President Musharraf was the most important person and the driving force in the country against the war on terror. If his towering personality is removed, the efforts to defeat the rising insurgency in the country will not succeed and I fear that it may spread to other parts of the country as well.

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The leader of Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) has warned against the presence of Taliban in Karachi. He has warned about the activities of Taliban in Karachi and this is borne out by the statement issued by Taliban spokesman Maulvi Umer that they can take over Karachi.

Strangely the Sindh government has brushed aside the threat as baseless and has accused MQM of baseless propaganda. Karachi is the most important and largest city of Pakistan and is rightly called the revenue engine of the country. It is necessary that the government takes such threat seriously instead of resorting to party politics. The fate of the city cannot be left in the hands of inept provincial home minister who has nothing to recommend him besides being a close friend of Asif Zardari.

Karachi has seen massive development work in recent years and is emerging as an important city in the region. It has the potential to grow and attract foreign investment. If proper steps are not taken to check the presence of Taliban in the city, it can be harmful for the whole of country in the long run.

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